The distinction between a milestone being achieved and the underlying economic right actually being secured is particularly important. Investors spend a lot of time diligencing whether a company can execute its roadmap, and perhaps not enough asking whether the external system will still assign the same value to each milestone when it gets there.
“A change in meaning is easier to miss because the vocabulary remains intact” is probably the key insight here. This extends well beyond data centres: permits, certifications, customer commitments, manufacturing capacity and even “commercial validation” can all retain the same label while becoming materially weaker evidence.
This feels especially relevant to deep tech because so much enterprise value sits several milestones into the future. In software, an external constraint can often be worked around relatively quickly. In industrial, energy or biotech companies, a change in regulation, infrastructure availability or qualification standards can rewrite several years of the roadmap at once!
The distinction between a milestone being achieved and the underlying economic right actually being secured is particularly important. Investors spend a lot of time diligencing whether a company can execute its roadmap, and perhaps not enough asking whether the external system will still assign the same value to each milestone when it gets there.
Thanks Eden for sharing your insights and ongoing work!
“A change in meaning is easier to miss because the vocabulary remains intact” is probably the key insight here. This extends well beyond data centres: permits, certifications, customer commitments, manufacturing capacity and even “commercial validation” can all retain the same label while becoming materially weaker evidence.
This feels especially relevant to deep tech because so much enterprise value sits several milestones into the future. In software, an external constraint can often be worked around relatively quickly. In industrial, energy or biotech companies, a change in regulation, infrastructure availability or qualification standards can rewrite several years of the roadmap at once!
Great article! Thx for sharing your insights